CEDS UNPAD

Indonesian Quarterly Macroeconometric Model for Forecasting and Policies

Using quarterly data of the Indonesian economy, we develop a macroenometric model designed for forecasting and policy simulations. It is based on a standard Keynesian model with the following special features.

First, we explicitly model the monetary policy via a monetary policy reaction function. Second, we model the formation of the output gap from an explicit aggregate production function connecting investment through dynamic capital formation. Third, we develop a highly detailed fiscal block; and fourth, we link the model with various early warning indicator such as stock price index, financial and crisis vulnerability. This paper discuss the model structure, its estimation, and some illustrative example of simulations.


Discussant: Dr. Budiono, Dr. Anhar Fauzan and Kindy Syahrir

 

Research seminar series in economics (RSSE) is regularly held seminars featuring the findings of all research projects of Center for Economics and Development Studies (CEDS). In this open seminar, research findings are scrutinized by external discussants and discussed by seminar's participants. RSSE is a core part of our mission in improving academic atmosphere within the university and increasing the quality
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Center for Economics and Development Studies is a research center under the Department of Economics, Padjadjaran University, Indonesia. A leading research institute in Indonesia in the area of economics and development studies.
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